China’s September Oil Demand Reaches Lowest Level in 2011, Platts points

Republic’s Oil Consumption Cools in Q3 after Surging in First Two Quarters.

Singapore – China's apparent oil demand in September grew just 3.1% year on year to 36.63 million metric tons (mt), or an average of 8.95 million barrels per day (b/d). This is the lowest level that the country’s oil demand has reached this year, according to a Platts analysis based on crude oil statistics recently released by the Chinese government.

September was also the second straight month that China’s oil demand has slipped to less than nine million b/d. This came on the back of reduced refinery runs due to heavy routine turnarounds and refinery incidents as well as declining demand for oil products.

In August, apparent oil demand was at 8.98 million b/d, the previous low of the year.

Apparent oil demand in the third quarter was the lowest so far this year at 8.99 million b/d, compared with 9.33 million b/d in Q1 and 9.23 million b/d in Q2.

"Refinery throughputs and net product imports declined due to scheduled maintenance and slowdown in demand for refined products,” said Calvin Lee, Platts senior writer, China. "Chinese refineries are also reluctant to boost production too much because of depressed refining margins."

In September, crude throughput increased by 3.4% year on year to 36.1 million mt, or an average of 8.82 million b/d.

Several Chinese refineries with crude distillation unit (CDU) capacities of 200,822 b/d or being shut for maintenance, including Sinopec's 200,822-b/d Luoyang refinery, the 281,151-b/d Sinopec Shanghai refinery, PetroChina's 321,315-b/d Dushanzi refinery and the 200,822-b/d PetroChina Qinzhou refinery.

In addition, any boost to China's total crude runs from a restart by PetroChina's 411,685-b/d Dalian refinery in early September after an earlier fire was canceled out by a reduction in crude throughput by the 226,929-b/d Sinopec Gaoqiao refinery following a fire at a secondary unit in late September.

At the same time, the country imported 1.1% less refined products in September compared with a year ago at 2.77 million mt. However, refined product exports increased 7.2% in September to 2.24 million mt.

Net product imports for September were at 0.53 million mt (0.13 million b/d) – the lowest this year.

September's net product imports were 14.5% less than a year ago and 57.3% less than the 1.24 million mt (0.29 million b/d) in August, as imports slumped due to the declining consumption for refined products.

According to a report published by the country's economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, apparent consumption of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel grew only 3.2% year on year in Q3, compared with an increase of 5% in Q2 and a growth of 9.3% in Q1 over the year-ago periods.

The slowdown is attributed to a slowdown in car sales and a decline in demand growth in other economic sectors.

"Analysts expect Chinese refinery throughput to rebound to above nine million b/d from October onward with the completion of the refinery turnarounds. They also project China's overall oil demand to grow by about 6-7% for the entire year compared with 2010, which is still a pretty solid growth rate if you consider the current global macroeconomic environment," said Lee. [ www.platts.com | www.platts.cn].

. Monthly trade data in million metric tons:

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